At UFC 281 on Saturday, a ghost from Israel Adesanya's past returns.Alex Pereira, a vicious striker who has already defeated Adesanya twice on the kickboxing circuit and is still the only person in combat sports to have knocked him out, will challenge Adesanya for the title of middleweight champion in the UFC.a headliner with a lot of stories for the promotion's return to New York City's Madison Square Garden.
With each successful title defense, Adesanya solidifies his position as the greatest middleweight of all time with a sublime and crushing striking game.Adesanya will put his kickboxing skills to the test against Pereira, a former two-division Glory kickboxing champion who is probably the only fighter who can match or even beat them.
In his sixth and seventh UFC fights, respectively, Adesanya fought his way to the interim middleweight and undisputed middleweight titles.A feat that deserves praise, but Pereira's rapid rise through the ranks overshadows it.Pereira earned a top-five ranking and a shot at the UFC title in his fourth fight with the organization after knocking out Sean Strickland in the first round at UFC 276.Adesanya is up for a tough challenge after defeating Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker twice, Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori twice, and Anderson Silva.
Can't get enough MMA and boxing?From two of the best in the business, learn about the most recent developments in combat sports.For the most comprehensive news and analysis, including a full preview of UFC 281, sign up for Morning Kombat with Luke Thomas and Brian Campbell.
When Carla Esparza takes on former titleholder Weili Zhang, the women's strawweight championship is also on the line.In her second reign as champion, Esparza seeks to defend her title for the first time; she also failed to do so when she first won it in 2014.
In addition, Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler, two former title challengers, will team up for a lightweight firefight in the main event.The fight could land the winner one last shot at the title in 2023.Frankie Edgar will fight Chris Gutierrez at bantamweight, which will be his last fight on the card.Additionally, Dan Hooker takes on Claudio Puelles in the main event of lightweights.
UFC 281
ufc 281 fight card
Israel Adesanya
adesanya vs pereira
Beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET, tune in to compete coverage of UFC 281 live from Madison Square Garden for round-by-round scoring and play-by-play of the entire Octagon action.
Before we get into our staff's predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities, let's take a closer look at the complete fight card with the most recent odds from Caesars Sportsbook because there is so much going on on Saturday night.
UFC 281 fight card, odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
- Israel Adesanya (c) -210 vs. Alex Pereira +175, middleweight championship
- Weili Zhang -340 vs. Carla Esparza (c) +270, women's strawweight championship
- Dustin Poirier -230 vs. Michael Chandler +190, lightweight
- Chris Gutierrez -220 vs. Frankie Edgar +170, bantamweight
- Dan Hooker -155 vs. Claudio Puelles +130, lightweight
- Renato Moicano -125 vs. Brad Riddell +105, lightweight
- Dominick Reyes -220 vs. Ryan Spann +180, light heavyweight
- Erin Blanchfield -400 vs. Molly McCann +310, women's flyweight
- Andre Petroski -200 vs. Wellington Turman +170, middleweight
- Silvana Gomez Juarez -115 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -105, women's strawweight
- Choi Seung-woo -165 vs. Michael Trizano +140, featherweight
- Ottman Azaitar -135 vs. Matt Frevola +115, lightweight
- Montel Jackson -200 vs. Julio Arce +170, bantamweight
- Carlos Ulberg -135 vs. Nicolae Negumereanu +115, light heavyweight
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of "Morning Kombat"), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 281 picks, predictions
| CAMPBELL | BROOKHOUSE | MAHJOURI | MORMILE | WISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adesanya (c) vs. Pereira | Adesanya | Pereira | Adesanya | Adesanya | Adesanya |
| Esparza (c) vs. Zhang | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang |
| Poirier vs. Chandler | Chandler | Poirier | Poirier | Poirier | Poirier |
| Edgar vs. Gutierrez | Gutierrez | Gutierrez | Gutierrez | Edgar | Gutierrez |
| Hooker vs. Puelles | Hooker | Puelles | Hooker | Hooker | Hooker |
| Records to date (2022) | 29-24 | 29-24 | 27-26 | 26-27 | 32-21 |
Adesanya vs. Pereira
Campbell: For as good as the backstory is of Pereira having twice defeated Adesanya in kickboxing, including once by brutal knockout, the differences between the two as mixed martial arts can't be forgotten. Yes, Pereira has frightening power in both hands but he's also still so incredibly green as an MMA fighter with just seven pro fights, including three in the Octagon. The threat of Pereira's striking should produce a focused Adesanya who is ready to counter at all times, unlike the more loose, point fighter he has become of late when contenders aren't willing to go for broke against him. Pereira should be plenty willing, which will mean Adesanya must be at his very best. But the deeper the fight goes, the more unknown questions emerge for Pereira, including everything from his stamina and ground game to his ability to make adjustments.
Brookhouse: Despite Pereira having two kickboxing wins over Adesanya, Adesanya is the better striker on a technical level. Pereira is one of the pound-for-pound heaviest hitters in the sport, though, and someone who is going to be unwilling to allow Adesanya to sit back and point fight. The mind games could also come into play, though I believe that would be something that leads to Adesanya looking to "make a point" rather than becoming gunshy. The problem I see for Adesanya is that engaging in striking is uniquely dangerous for him in this fight. Yes, he is better technically, but MMA gloves not only lead to harder shots from Pereira but also to more difficulty in defending against those shots coming at you. An Adesanya win is the more likely outcome, but this feels like the kind of fight where the challenger has a well above average chance of pulling off the upset. It only takes one shot from Pereira to end this fight while Adesanya has to be on point at all times.
Mahjouri: It feels like some time since siding with Adesanya required such caution. Pereira has the more powerful kickboxing and is brimming with confidence having defeated Adesanya in two previous kickboxing matches. Adesanya is the more elusive striker, employing feints, footwork and counterattacks that disarm most opponents. Pereira has proven far more hittable in the Octagon thus far, which should work to the champion's advantage. On the surface, Pereira's KO of Adesanya in their second kickboxing fight is concerning. A full watch through of that fight, however, shows that Adesanya was having his way with Pereira before the finish. An Adesanya decision win or Pereira KO seems most likely, let's side with the former.
Esparza vs. Zhang
Campbell: Rarely before has a two-time champion riding a six-fight win streak been this aggressively dismissed by seemingly everyone heading into a title defense. But whether it's fair or not that fans continue to blame Esparza for how boring her title victory over Rose Namajunas was in their May rematch, few are expecting her to exit the Octagon still wearing her 115-pound belt. The reason is largely because of how much better Zhang has seemed to have gotten as a fighter since losing her title to Namajunas. Zhang, the first Chinese-born UFC champion, rebuilt her body and improved her wrestling skills enough to see oddsmakers install her as nearly a 4-1 favorite. Considering four of Esparza's six recent wins featured disputed scoring, Zhang appears to be the smart pick for good reason.
Mahjouri: Zhang is a powerhouse among strawweights. Few in the division rival her ability to land crushing blows. She certainly has the striking edge against Esparza but so do most of the top contenders. A glance at Zhang's 60% takedown defense is concerning, but I expect her coaches have put a lot of emphasis on her wrestling to pair with her physical strength. (Hopefully) improved wrestling, natural strength and head-rattling power should lead Zhang to victory.
Poirier vs. Chandler
Campbell: When you risk it all from the opening bell for the first five minutes of every fight, you are going likely win just as much as you lose. Chandler's exciting 2-2 run since making his UFC debut last year seems to support that. But the former three-time Bellator MMA champion's blitzkrieg approach might also be his best chance at getting to the chin of Poirier, whose accumulation of damage over an incredible career will one day catch up to him. Even if Chandler follows through on his threat to play it safer than normal (by wrestling) given that a title shot could be in play for the winner, the fireworks fans expect should still be there eventually. Chandler nearly knocked out then-champion Charles Oliveira in 2021 and appears poised for a possible second run at the belt.
Brookhouse: Yes, the logic that "one day" Poirier may lose all punch resistance is reasonable. But there's no proof that that day has come. Chandler, meanwhile, has a notoriously crackable chin, especially for someone who fights in the style that he does. It still feels like a minor miracle that he made it to the scorecards against Justin Gaethje. Chandler was dropped by a badly faded Tony Ferguson and just gets hit too cleanly, too often to pick him against someone with the precision and overall gameplan of Poirier. Chandler always has the very definition of a "puncher's chance" but his better path to victory may be to be a wrestler first, striker second. I don't see him following through on that plan once Poirier starts to land. Chandler likely goes right to his habit of overly engaging with wild strikes that will leave him open to crisp shots from Poirier before a stoppage.
Wise: There's some strong narratives on both sides of this matchup. Poirier is coming off a second title defeat when he continues to get ever so close to a championship. Chandler, meanwhile, shows that he still has the flashes of brilliance with knockout power, but comes up short in big moments as well. The fight will be decided by whoever leaves himself exposed on entry with boxing combinations -- unless Poirier decides to lean on his wrestling game. People believe that Poirier's chin may be ready to give at any moment, but Chandler has the same issues. I'll take the fighter with more ways to win the fight -- and more willingness to utilize his full game.
Who wins Adesanya vs. Pereira? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 281, all from the incomparable expert who's up more than $13,000 on MMA in the past three years, and find out.
UFC 281 best bets, predictions: Weili Zhang vs. Carla Esparza, Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler among picks
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